Business Model & Revenue
BullFrog AI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: BFRG) is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Founded in 2017 by Vin Singh (CEO), it went public via IPO on February 14, 2023.
The platform consists of bfLEAP® (causal AI for multimodal biological data analysis), bfPREP™ (data harmonization), and bfARENAS™ (scenario simulation, launched March 25, 2026). The company also has early-stage internal drug candidates (BF-222 glioblastoma, BF-223 prodrug).
Revenue model: AI analytics services and pilot engagements. TTM revenue of $120K. Strategic partnership with Sygnature Discovery (UK-based CRO) for co-marketing.
Financial Highlights
FY2025 Financials
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.12M |
| Net Loss | ($6.50)M |
| Operating Expenses | $6.62M |
| Cash/sh | $0.17 |
| Total Cash | ~$1.94M |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.42M |
| Float | 9.12M |
| Employees | 9 |
| P/S Ratio | 110x+ |
Nasdaq Compliance
| Issue | Status |
|---|---|
| Bid Price (<$1.00) | Active notice (Feb 10, 2026) |
| Stockholders' Equity (<$2.5M) | Extension denied (Feb 2026) |
| Reverse Split | Approved Oct 2025, not yet executed |
Share Dilution
| Period | Shares |
|---|---|
| IPO (Feb 2023) | 6.09M |
| FY2024 | 9.11M |
| FY2025 | 11.42M |
| Dilution | +47% since IPO |
Competitive Landscape
AI drug discovery is crowded and well-funded:
| Company | Market Cap | Employees |
|---|---|---|
| Recursion (RXRX) | ~$4B | ~1,000 |
| Insilico Medicine | Private (~$700M raised) | ~500 |
| Exscientia | ~$500M | ~900 |
| BenevolentAI | ~$200M | ~300 |
| BullFrog AI (BFRG) | ~$15M | 9 |
BFRG's causal AI approach (bfLEAP) is scientifically differentiated but unproven at scale. The company has published white papers but has no clinical-stage partnerships with named customers. In a space where Recursion has spent $1B+ building its platform, a 9-person company with $120K revenue is not competitively positioned.
Catalysts
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8-K additional details. Full terms of the feasibility agreement, if disclosed, could clarify value.
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Customer name reveal. If the pharma company goes public, it adds credibility.
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Follow-on engagement. Conversion from feasibility pilot to larger contract would be genuinely positive.
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Nasdaq compliance resolution. If both deficiency notices are resolved, some overhang lifts — but the stockholders' equity extension was already denied.
Key Risks
- Cash runway: ~3.5 months. Near-certain dilutive financing needed.
- Dual Nasdaq delisting: Bid price deficiency + equity extension already denied (Feb 2026).
- Revenue irrelevance: $120K annual revenue vs $6.6M burn.
- Scale inadequacy: 9 employees vs. competitors with hundreds to thousands.
- 47% dilution since IPO with continued cash burn.
- Hype-driven valuation: 110x+ P/S prices in success that hasn't occurred.
- Feasibility not commercial: Pilot success does not guarantee follow-on revenue.
Our Thesis
The disconnect between the press release framing ("commercial agreement") and the 8-K reality ("Feasibility Agreement") is the entire story. A feasibility agreement is the enterprise software equivalent of a first date — the customer tests the technology on their data before committing. No deal value, no customer name, no follow-on commitment.
At $1.35 and ~$15M market cap, BFRG trades at 110x+ trailing revenue. The financials are stark: $120K revenue, $6.5M annual net loss, $1.94M cash (~3.5 months runway), dual Nasdaq delisting threats, 9 employees competing against well-funded AI drug discovery companies with 100-1,000x the resources. The surge is a compliance-driven liquidity event, not a fundamental re-rating.
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